Forecast Monkey

The following Q&A attempts to answer your many burning questions about the Forecast Monkey and his blog:

Q: So what is this “Forecast Monkey” blog?
A: Basically, we have a hyperactive little monkey that we experiment on, and we then interpret the results of those experiments as predictions for what will happen to the stock market in the next trading day.

Q: Which stocks does the Forecast Monkey predict?
A: The Forecast Monkey blog tries (and frequently fails) to predict the direction of the S&P 500 index for the next trading day.

Q: When are the latest predictions published?
A: All predictions are published approximately 10 minutes before the end of the trading day (The 10 minute lead-time is intended to leave enough time to theoretically make a trade based on our prediction before the market closes).

Q: How much risk is there to trading these predictions?
A: Extreme risk. The stats we report for the Forecast Monkey’s performance assume the use of highly leveraged mutual funds which can fluctuate wildly over a very short time period.

Q: I can’t believe your stated performance is real. How do I know you aren’t just making up those numbers?
A: Our trading performance since 4/14/2009 has been independently audited by TimerTrac. Click here to see their independent record of our trades.

Q: Are any animals actually harmed in the course of making these predictions?
A: Yes. If you have a soul, you will call PETA right now to report us.

Q: I don’t believe you. How are these predictions really made?
A: OK. You got us. These predictions are actually the output of a sophisticated computer program which we’ve been working on. The monkey angle is just for fun.

Q: Sweet! How do I invest all my savings in this scheme?
A: Don’t be a moron. This is a humor site. We are not investment advisers.

Q: But I really like the idea of a computer-driven daily stock market predictions. Pretty please tell me how to trade this?
A: There are reputable money managers out there who have computer programs which do exactly that. Our favorite is Michael Stokes, who runs the MarketSci system. Go talk to him.

Q: But those money managers all want me to pay for their services, and I want to trade YOUR recommended trades for free.
A: Fine. Theoretically, if you were dumb enough to actually place trades based on the Forecast Monkey’s predictions, you would buy ticker symbols SSO (when the S&P 500 is predicted to rise) and SDS (when the S&P 500 is predicted to fall). If you have a lot of money to invest, you would want to open an account with Profunds.com, and move your money back and forth between their Ultrabull and Ultrabear funds (this avoids paying a per-trade commission). Trading any of these funds involves extreme risk, and should only be done with money that you can afford to lose.

Tags: about, introduction, monkey